The spectre of abundant rainfall looms large over the Greater Horn of Africa, as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) issues a stark warning to its member states: prepare for above-normal downpours between June and September. This pronouncement, made yesterday at the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 70), signals a significant shift in the region’s climate narrative, moving from prolonged drought to the potential for devastating floods.
Dr. Titke Kassa, a Climate Change Expert at IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), highlighted the critical importance of this period, known as the Kiremt season, for the agricultural backbone of nations like Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, and northern Somalia. ICPAC’s meteorological forecast, meticulously crafted after examining favourable temperature patterns in the mid-Pacific, points to a deluge across many areas where Kiremt reigns as the primary rainy season. Ethiopia, western Kenya, eastern Uganda, and Sudan are all singled out as likely recipients of this impending moisture.
While the prospect of ample water for agricultural production and hydropower generation is, on the surface, a welcome relief after years of parched earth, Dr. Kassa’s words carried an urgent undertone. “Flood-prone areas have to make preparation from now to mitigate possible impacts when the rain falls from south-western across north-eastern IGAD countries,” he advised. The ghost of last year’s Ethiopian landslide, which claimed lives and property after thrice-normal rainfall, serves as a grim reminder of the potential human cost of unchecked deluge.
The Water and Energy Minister, Eng. Habtamu Itefa (PhD), echoed these concerns, underscoring the “highest alarming level” of worry following consecutive seasons of extreme drought across the region. “Our region has been experiencing increasing trends in frequency, intensity and severity of droughts and occasional floods that have disrupted the lives and livelihoods of millions, resulting in the loss of property,” he stated. Agriculture, food security, water resources, hydropower, tourism, and health are all vulnerable sectors caught in the crosshairs of climate variability.
For Minister Itefa, accurate climate information isn’t merely academic; it’s the bedrock upon which effective short- and medium-term strategies to combat both flood and drought risks must be built. “We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels,” he urged, stressing the vital need to disseminate such data, particularly to the most vulnerable grassroots communities.
Fetene Teshome, Director General of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, reinforced the critical role of climate information in mitigating risks and seizing opportunities. He emphasised that weather knows no borders, making collaboration among Greater Horn of Africa scientists and international partners not just beneficial, but essential. “We believe that by applying best practices in the delivery, provision, and evaluation of weather and climate predictions, we can make a significant impact,” he concluded, a rallying cry for collective action.
As the skies prepare to open, the message from IGAD and its partners is clear: the coming rains offer both a blessing and a potential curse. The region’s ability to harness the former and avert the latter will depend on immediate and collaborative preparedness, turning the promise of abundance into a shield against disaster.
