East African nations are bracing for a potential spike in wheat prices in 2025 as Russia, their primary supplier, faces a projected poor crop. The region’s dependence on Russian wheat, coupled with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has left it vulnerable to supply disruptions and price fluctuations.
“We are closely monitoring the situation with the winter crops. It appears to be extremely difficult, potentially turning into some kind of dramatic scenario,” said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, during an agricultural investors conference.
The Sovecon consultancy warned earlier this week that wheat sowing rates in Russia have dropped significantly, raising concerns about next year’s harvest. The country, the world’s top wheat exporter, has been hit by severe drought, threatening its winter crop.
The impact of a reduced Russian wheat harvest would be particularly severe for countries like Kenya, which imports up to 75 percent of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine. Higher wheat prices could lead to increased food costs for consumers and strain the budgets of businesses that rely on wheat-based products.
Kirill Yershov, head of Aeon Agro, which farms over 240,000 hectares in the Penza and Saratov regions, echoed these concerns. “There will be problems with the wheat harvest next year. The situation is critical, with everything planted in dry soil. We have planted less than last year, and many others have done the same,” Yershov is quoted by Reuters.
The potential wheat shortage in Russia could also have ripple effects on the global wheat market, leading to higher prices for other wheat-producing countries. This could further exacerbate food security challenges in East Africa, where many people are already struggling to afford basic necessities.
As the situation in Russia continues to unfold, East African governments and businesses are closely monitoring the situation and exploring alternative sources of wheat to mitigate the potential impact of price increases. The region’s food security is at stake, and the consequences of a wheat crisis could be far-reaching.
